Starting the New Week
volatile price movements in global markets . As we closed last week, we observed an increase in geopolitical tension with Israel's attack on Iran. As we start the new week, we observe that geopolitical tension has peaked, but the possibility of the war remaining shallow with rocket attacks has decreased demand for gold to some extent. As the attacks continue, geopolitical tension is increasing, supporting the upward movement in oil prices, while the declines in gold can be evaluated as a buying opportunity while a definitive agreement environment has not been formed. This week, eyes will be on the news from the Middle East, the FED's interest rate decision, Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and the critical employment reports to be announced from the US!
Macroeconomic Outlook
with the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) announced last week as 2.4%, it continues to support the FED's interest rate cut possibilities. Especially the Core Inflation, which the FED also follows closely; was announced as 0.1% while the expectation was 0.3%, meaning that inflation rates in the US excluding energy and food continue to fall. The decline in inflation also continues to support the FED's interest rate cut possibilities in total.
This week, important data from the US will continue to be the focus of the markets. On Tuesday, Japan's interest rate decision and Retail Sales from the US, Wednesday 's inflation figures from the UK and Europe, the US FED's critical interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech, Thursday 's interest rate decisions from the UK, Switzerland and Turkey, and on the last trading day of the week, the US FED Manufacturing Index figures will be the main focus of the markets!
On the other hand, the FED-Policy conflict continues to increase. According to Trump's strategy, we observe an escalation of a conflict process with Fed Chair Powell due to the need for a low interest rate policy to increase exports. This situation strengthens the possibility of FED Chair Powell's resignation, while in the end, it becomes a factor supporting positive movement in precious metals as a period of great uncertainty. All eyes will be on FED Chair
Powell's statement in front of the cameras on Wednesday!
Geopolitical Outlook
On the other hand, the world continues to heat up geopolitically. We continue to observe rocket attacks between Iran and Israel. In particular, the possibility of rapid increases in oil prices having a negative impact on US inflation may have a negative impact on interest rate cuts. In particular, the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being closed could harm world economic activity, which is among the results of geopolitical risks!
Technical Analysis
Starting 2025 at $2,625 per ounce, gold closed the first quarter of the year at $3,125, reaching record levels. Technically, while prices above $3,300 continue to support the positive outlook, geopolitical tensions along with interest rate cut expectations keep precious metal demand alive. If it stays above the $3,400 region this week, we may observe an increase to the $3,475-$3,500 region.
Local Market Outlook
Domestically, the gram gold price in the Grand Bazaar closed last week at 4,370 TL. In the new week, prices are observed to be around 4,260 TL with a slightly selling trend. The expectation of a rate cut by the TCMB in June , the increase in geopolitical tension in our country's immediate vicinity and the USD/TRY exchange rate exceeding 39.40 are positively affecting gram gold prices on a global scale.
In Turkey, premiums per ounce were equalized with those abroad due to the decrease in demand during the holiday . This week, with the increase in geopolitical tension , local demand for gold has increased and the Grand Bazaar is priced at a +$30 premium compared to abroad on an ounce basis. On a kilogram basis, there is a difference of approximately $950 compared to the London market. This week, all eyes will be on geopolitical developments along with the FED's interest rate decision!
CME FedWatch According to Tool , the Fed The probability of a 0.25 basis point rate cut in July is priced in at 16%.
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