Weekly Market Analysis / 20 - 24 March 2023

Last week, we followed the US and Euro Zone inflation and the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision in global markets. Annual inflation in the USA fell from 6.4% to 6% in February, while monthly inflation was 0.4%. Core inflation, on the other hand, rose from 0.4% to 0.5% monthly, while it fell from 5.6% to 5.5% on an annual basis. In the Euro Area, consumer price index increased by 0.8% monthly in February, in line with the expectations, while annual inflation, which was 8.6% in January, became 8.5% in February. Following the news of the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the USA at the beginning of the week, the bankruptcy of New York-based Signature Bank also caused hard sales in global markets. The statements of the Saudi National Bank, the largest partner of Credit Suisse, the second largest bank in Switzerland, after the bank crisis in the USA, that they would not support the bank further if necessary, deepened the sales in the global markets. In the midst of the banking crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) increased the interest rates by 50 basis points, raising the main refinancing rate to 3.50%, the marginal funding facility to 3.75% and the overnight deposit rate to 3%. In the text of the resolution, it was predicted that inflation would remain at a very high level for a long time. ECB President Lagarde, in his speech after the interest rate decision, stated that they are closely following the tension in the markets and that they are ready to take the necessary steps to ensure price stability, and that the banking sector in the Euro Zone is very strong and there is no problem in terms of liquidity. Investors turned to safe assets with the expectation that the concerns about the banking sector would increase and the Fed would not continue to raise interest rates in this environment. Gold rose above $1,950 an ounce, which started the week with an opening above $2,000. While oil prices regressed due to the recession concerns after the banking crisis that emerged in the USA, the barrel of Brent oil decreased to 71.67 dollars.